Zero-inflated truncated generalized Pareto distribution for the analysis of radio audience data

Extreme value data with a high clump-at-zero occur in many domains. Moreover, it might happen that the observed data are either truncated below a given threshold and/or might not be reliable enough below that threshold because of the recording devices. These situations occur, in particular, with radio audience data measured using personal meters that record environmental noise every minute, that is then matched to one of the several radio programs. There are therefore genuine zeros for respondents not listening to the radio, but also zeros corresponding to real listeners for whom the match between the recorded noise and the radio program could not be achieved. Since radio audiences are important for radio broadcasters in order, for example, to determine advertisement price policies, possibly according to the type of audience at different time points, it is essential to be able to explain not only the probability of listening to a radio but also the average time spent listening to the radio by means of the characteristics of the listeners. In this paper we propose a generalized linear model for zero-inflated truncated Pareto distribution (ZITPo) that we use to fit audience radio data. Because it is based on the generalized Pareto distribution, the ZITPo model has nice properties such as model invariance to the choice of the threshold and from which a natural residual measure can be derived to assess the model fit to the data. From a general formulation of the most popular models for zero-inflated data, we derive our model by considering successively the truncated case, the generalized Pareto distribution and then the inclusion of covariates to explain the nonzero proportion of listeners and their average listening time. By means of simulations, we study the performance of the maximum likelihood estimator (and derived inference) and use the model to fully analyze the audience data of a radio station in a certain area of Switzerland.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS358 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Does wine glass size influence sales for on-site consumption? A multiple treatment reversal design

Abstract Background Wine glass size can influence both perceptions of portion size and the amount poured, but its impact upon purchasing and consumption is unknown. This study aimed to examine the impact of wine glass size on wine sales for on-site consumption, keeping portion size constant. Methods In one establishment (with separate bar and restaurant areas) in Cambridge, England, wine glass size (Standard; Larger; Smaller) was changed over eight fortnightly periods. The bar and restaurant differ in wine sales by the glass vs. by the bottle (93 % vs. 63 % by the glass respectively). Results Daily wine volume purchased was 9.4 % (95 % CI: 1.9, 17.5) higher when sold in larger compared to standard-sized glasses. This effect seemed principally driven by sales in the bar area (bar: 14.4 % [3.3, 26.7]; restaurant: 8.2 % [−2.5, 20.1]). Findings were inconclusive as to whether sales were different with smaller vs. standard-sized glasses. Conclusions The size of glasses in which wine is sold, keeping the portion size constant, can affect consumption, with larger glasses increasing consumption. The hypothesised mechanisms for these differential effects need to be tested in a replication study. If replicated, policy implications could include considering glass size amongst alcohol licensing requirements. Trial registration ISRCTN registry: ISRCTN12018175 . Registered 12th May 2015

Wine glass size in England from 1700 to 2017: a measure of our time.

Wine, mistletoe’s seasonal partner, may be a feature of some rather merry Christmas nights, particularly for women. As we approach the culturally legitimised deviancy of festive drinking, we suggest that size does matter: look at the wine glass in your hand.The research for this article was funded by the National Institute of Health Research Senior Investigator Award (NF-SI-0513-10101), awarded to TMM

Can warning labels communicating the environmental impact of meat reduce meat consumption? Evidence from two multiple treatment reversal experiments in college dining halls

Meat consumption has an adverse impact on both human and planetary health. To date, very few studies have examined the effectiveness of interventions tackling the overconsumption of meat in field settings. The present research addresses this gap by examining the impact of gain-framed labelling interventions communicating the adverse environmental consequences of meat consumption, using a multiple treatment reversal design across two university college dining halls over a period of five weeks. In College A the intervention weeks consisted of text-only or text-and-image labels communicating the adverse environmental consequences of meat consumption, and in College B patrons were exposed to either environmental or health labels (gain-framed; combining images and text). In total 13,869 (6,577 in College A and 7,292 in College B) meals (dishes) were analysed over the period of interest. Beta-binomial regressions found no statistically significant impact of the intervention periods compared to baseline on meat consumption in both College A and College B. The number of meal type options emerged as the only consistent predictor of meat consumption across models and across both colleges: meat consumption decreased with an increase in non-meat meal options. A post-study survey (College A: n = 88; College B: n = 53) revealed that patrons in both dining halls perceived environmental labels bearing both text and images as more informative and influential at changing behaviour compared to the other labelling interventions, although this did not translate into a change in behaviour. We discuss the implications of these findings for research, policy, and practice

Does Glass Size and Shape Influence Judgements of the Volume of Wine?

This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from PLOS via http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0144536Background \ud Judgements of volume may influence the rate of consumption of alcohol and, in turn, the amount consumed. The aim of the current study was to examine the impact of the size and shape of wine glasses on perceptions of wine volume. \ud \ud Methods \ud Online experiment: Participants (n = 360; recruited via Mechanical Turk) were asked to match the volume of wine in two wine glasses, specifically: 1. the Reference glass holding a fixed reference volume, and 2. the Comparison glass, for which the volume could be altered until participants perceived it matched the reference volume. One of three comparison glasses was shown in each trial: ?wider? (20% wider but same capacity); ?larger? (same width but 25% greater capacity); or ?wider-and-larger? (20% wider and 25% greater capacity). Reference volumes were 125ml, 175ml and 250ml, in a fully factorial within-subjects design: 3 (comparison glass) x 3 (reference volume). Non-zero differences between the volumes with which participants filled comparison glasses and the corresponding reference volumes were identified using sign-rank tests. \ud \ud Results \ud Participants under-filled the wider glass relative to the reference glass for larger reference volumes, and over-filled the larger glass relative to the reference glass for all reference volumes. Results for the wider-and-larger glass showed a mixed pattern across reference volume. For all comparison glasses, in trials with larger reference volumes participants tended to fill the comparison glass less, relative to trials with smaller reference volumes for the same comparison glass.\ud \ud Conclusions \ud These results are broadly consistent with people using the relative fullness of glasses to judge volume, and suggest both the shape and capacity of wine glasses may influence perceived volume. Perceptions that smaller glasses contain more than larger ones (despite containing the same volume), could slow drinking speed and overall consumption by serving standard portions in smaller glasses. This hypothesis awaits testing.The study was funded by the Department of Health Policy Research Programme (http://prp.dh.gov.uk/) (Policy Research Unit in Behaviour and Health [PR-UN-0409-10109]). ASA and MRM are members of the UK Centre for Tobacco and Alcohol Studies, a UKCRC Public Health Research: Centre of Excellence. Funding from British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, and the National Institute for Health Research, under the auspices of the UK Clinical Research Collaboration, is gratefully acknowledged. None of the funders had a role in the study design, data collection, analysis, interpretation, or decision to submit for publication. The research was conducted independently of the funders, and the views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the funders

Do Executive Function and Impulsivity Predict Adolescent Health Behaviour after Accounting for Intelligence? Findings from the ALSPAC Cohort

This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from PLOS via http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.016051

Noninvasive rapid detection of metabolic adaptation in activated human T lymphocytes by hyperpolarized 13 C magnetic resonance

Abstract: The metabolic shift induced in human CD4+ T lymphocytes by stimulation is characterized by an upregulation of glycolysis, leading to an augmentation in lactate production. This adaptation has already been highlighted with various techniques and reported in several previous studies. We herein propose a method to rapidly and noninvasively detect the associated increase in flux from pyruvate to lactate catalyzed by lactate dehydrogenase using hyperpolarized 13C magnetic resonance, a technique which can be used for in vivo imaging. It was shown that the conversion of hyperpolarized 13C-pyruvate to 13C-lactate during the one-minute measurement increased by a mean factor of 3.6 in T cells stimulated for 5 days as compared to resting T cells. This method can be extended to other metabolic substrates and is therefore a powerful tool to noninvasively analyze T cell metabolism, possibly in vivo

Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency’s “Consultation on proposals for legislative changes for clinical trials”: a response from the Trials Methodology Research Partnership Adaptive Designs Working Group, with a focus on data sharing

In the UK, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency consulted on proposals “to improve and strengthen the UK clinical trials legislation to help us make the UK the best place to research and develop safe and innovative medicines”. The purpose of the consultation was to help finalise the proposals and contribute to the drafting of secondary legislation. We discussed these proposals as members of the Trials Methodology Research Partnership Adaptive Designs Working Group, which is jointly funded by the Medical Research Council and the National Institute for Health and Care Research. Two topics arose frequently in the discussion: the emphasis on legislation, and the absence of questions on data sharing. It is our opinion that the proposals rely heavily on legislation to change practice. However, clinical trials are heterogeneous, and as a result some trials will struggle to comply with all of the proposed legislation. Furthermore, adaptive design clinical trials are even more heterogeneous than their non-adaptive counterparts, and face more challenges. Consequently, it is possible that increased legislation could have a greater negative impact on adaptive designs than non-adaptive designs. Overall, we are sceptical that the introduction of legislation will achieve the desired outcomes, with some exceptions. Meanwhile the topic of data sharing — making anonymised individual-level clinical trial data available to other investigators for further use — is entirely absent from the proposals and the consultation in general. However, as an aspect of the wider concept of open science and reproducible research, data sharing is an increasingly important aspect of clinical trials. The benefits of data sharing include faster innovation, improved surveillance of drug safety and effectiveness and decreasing participant exposure to unnecessary risk. There are already a number of UK-focused documents that discuss and encourage data sharing, for example, the Concordat on Open Research Data and the Medical Research Council’s Data Sharing Policy. We strongly suggest that data sharing should be the norm rather than the exception, and hope that the forthcoming proposals on clinical trials invite discussion on this important topic